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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still