A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
