Citizens in the Holland are preparing to possibly exchange the most rightwing government in modern history with a more moderate and commonsense coalition during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the outgoing government in June, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective governing alliance.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too controversial for the premier position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has lived under police protection for twenty years, began criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to patrol borders, rejecting all refugee applicants, shutting down refugee hostels and repatriating all Syrian refugees.
While support for the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the rightwing, Islam-critical party is once more projected to secure the largest representation in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are forecast to gain representation, but none is expected to secure above about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the next Dutch government, generally an influential player on the European and global scene, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could last months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Holland has been governed by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Representatives are chosen every four years – earlier if administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in modern times by a sharp decline in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the eighties to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the army to fight "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to only five mandates in the last election.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a full-blown merger, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the seasoned former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its manifesto.
Three additional groups look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign focused on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decline. It is proposing corporate tax reductions and reduced social benefits.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the unsuccessful previous government, the BBB and NSC, are projected to decline, with the NSC not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The top issues currently have been migration policy, with several – occasionally aggressive – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the country is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, typically the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Multiple options look plausible, most involving a mix of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and one or more smaller parties possibly incorporating JA21.
